ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 27.03.2025
ASX Stock Market Outlook
It’s red across the board this morning.
SPI futures are pointing to a weak open for the ASX 200, down 0.46%. The overnight tone was risk-off, with US markets hit hard. Nasdaq 100 futures are down a thumping 1.93%, S&P 500 off 1.24%, and the Dow down 0.46%. Big tech took a bruising, and the froth is coming off the top.
It’s even worse in Europe. DAX down 1.69%, EURO STOXX 50 off 1.64%, and the broader STOXX 600 sinking 0.97%. European equities are losing altitude fast as rate cut expectations continue to get pushed out — and weaker growth isn’t helping. The only green shoot was the FTSE 100 (+0.18%) which seems to be basking in defensive positioning and commodity exposure.
Asia didn’t fare any better. Hang Seng down -0.12%, Nikkei -0.09%, China A50 flat, and even the yen got smacked (-0.48%) as the market grapples with rising Japanese yields. US 10Y yields fell slightly to 4.352%, and Aussie 10Y bonds rallied too.
The equity rally is faltering, the Fed is staying hawkish, and inflation is not going away quietly. That’s not a great cocktail.
The Play Today
We’re walking into a weak open, so be cautious. Energy and resources are the obvious drag. Crude weakness, soft commodity pricing, and rising volatility are all pushing investors toward the exit.
US tech just took a hit, and while Aussie names have been lagging, there’s no obvious rotation in sight. The selling pressure in global semis and cloud stocks is building.
watch for panic selling early and a possible intraday reversal. Holding overnight now has increased risk.
Major Themes Driving the Financial Markets:
Inflation in Japan: The return of inflation to Japan has major implications. Japanese Government Bonds are tanking as the market factors in higher rates over time. This has the potential to lead to a highly disruptive unravelling of the Yen Carry Trade.
Trade Tensions and Tariffs: The Trump administration's tariff policies continue to inject volatility into global markets. The potential for higher inflation and slower growth—stagflation—remains a concern. Nasdaq futures are up again overnight. AI, semis, and mega-cap tech are leading the charge globally. Can Aussie tech keep up?
Tech Sector Dynamics: Significant movements in major tech stocks, particularly companies like Tesla and Alphabet, highlight the sector's sensitivity to broader economic indicators and policy decisions. Investors should monitor these developments closely.
Economic Data to Watch this Week:
Economic Data to Watch This Week:
Tuesday: Japanese BOJ Meeting Minutes
Wednesday: Australian CPI, UK CPI, US Core Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: US GDP Final,
Friday: US Core PCE
Reading List
MIQ: The Yen Carry Trade Unwind
Global Market Prices
Global Markets(Source: TradingView)
ASX Sector Information Technology
Information Technology has been weak and could come under renewed selling pressure today in sympathy with the Nasdaq. Watch out for a potential break of the recent lows.
ASX Information Technology XIJ sector index (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Tasmea (ASX:TEA)
Tasmea is turning back up after a brief pullback.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
The Daily Brief is prepared in partnership with Vitti Capital.
