ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 26.03.2025 - Futures, Stocks and Key Events
ASX Stock Market Outlook
Global equity indices are a sea of green overnight.
SPI futures are up +0.59% this morning, pointing to an optimistic start for the ASX 200. The ship appears to have steadied. In the US, Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.69%, S&P 500 +0.27%, and Dow eking out a skinny +0.06% gain.
Europe is pushing hard — DAX futures are up a sharp +1.23%, and the STOXX 600 is flying +0.88%. Asia’s showing some breath too: Hang Seng up +0.57%, Nikkei +0.10%, and China A50 +0.16%. Even the FTSE 100 is ticking along nicely at +0.35%. So what’s the catch?
Bond yields are also down, confirming a lower risk environment out there. The VIX ticked up slightly, but at below 20 it's not much of a warning sign.
Sector dispersion remains a strong theme. Productivity-linked commodities are still lacklustre, pointing to a lack of confidence in the recovery, while gold's strength confirms the cynicism.
There's still a strong risk that this is just a bear rally and further falls are to come, so stay vigilant.
It’s also worth mentioning that the BOJ raised its inflation outlook yesterday and has signalled possible rate rises are to come. This is important for the potential unwind of the yen carry trade if inflation really does start to bite.
The Play Today
Expect a slightly firmer open, but don’t trust it blindly.
Tech should get a look — Nasdaq’s resilience is helping. If local names like WiseTech, Xero, and Life360 feel the glow, there’s room for a short pop. But with energy and materials under pressure again (WTI crude down), the miners and oil names could drag.
That AUD weakness might help CSL and other exporters find a bid, but unless we see strong follow-through, the early rally could fade quickly.
Copper and lithium stocks are in the crosshairs today — expect volatility. If we get a dip, it might be a buy-the-weakness moment for high-beta names riding the AI and electrification trends. Keep an eye on volumes post-open to see if the bulls have real conviction or if this is just another dead cat bounce.
Major Themes Driving the Financial Markets:
Inflation in Japan: The return of inflation to Japan has major implications. Japanese Government Bonds are tanking as the market factors in higher rates over time. This has the potential to lead to a highly disruptive unravelling of the Yen Carry Trade.
Trade Tensions and Tariffs: The Trump administration's tariff policies continue to inject volatility into global markets. The potential for higher inflation and slower growth—stagflation—remains a concern. Nasdaq futures are up again overnight. AI, semis, and mega-cap tech are leading the charge globally. Can Aussie tech keep up?
Tech Sector Dynamics: Significant movements in major tech stocks, particularly companies like Tesla and Alphabet, highlight the sector's sensitivity to broader economic indicators and policy decisions. Investors should monitor these developments closely.
Economic Data to Watch this Week:
Economic Data to Watch This Week:
Tuesday: Japanese BOJ Meeting Minutes
Wednesday: Australian CPI, UK CPI, US Core Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: US GDP Final,
Friday: US Core PCE
Reading List
MIQ: The Yen Carry Trade Unwind
Global Market Prices
Global Markets(Source: TradingView)
ASX Sector Materials
The materials sector remains very weak.
ASX Consumer Staples sector index (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR)
Oil producer Karoon shows strong upward momentum.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
The Daily Brief is prepared in partnership with Vitti Capital.
