ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 24.03.2025 - Futures, Stocks and Key Events
ASX Stock Market Outlook
The new week kicks off with a touch of whiplash. SPI futures are down -0.51%, pointing to a weak open for the ASX 200, even as US equity futures are flashing green. Tech is pumping again in the US. The Nasdaq is alive. AI is back in the narrative seat. But down here? We've got gold off its highs, oil slipping, the Aussie dollar losing ground, and that gnawing unease from yen volatility still hanging over the tape.
This isn’t a clean macro picture. On the one hand, the Fed just reassured markets with a clear glide path to cuts, and risk assets rallied in celebration. On the other, we’ve got cracks forming in commodities and currencies that powered the last two legs of this global rally. Energy stocks are looking wobbly. Gold has lost some steam. And unless local tech decides to wake up and chase Nasdaq, this open could drift sideways to soft.
Last week, the ASX eked out a -0.2% loss, but it felt worse at times. Bond yields chopped around, the RBA struck a cautious tone, and China concerns kept a lid on resources. We saw some resilience late in the week thanks to stronger iron ore and a bit of risk-on spillover from the US, but the local market clearly lagged behind global peers. Compare that to Nasdaq futures, which soared nearly 3% on the week, riding the AI resurgence and a broader risk rally fueled by that oh-so-dovish Fed outlook.
Fast forward to this morning, and here's where we stand on the futures board: Nasdaq 100 is up 0.41%, S&P 500 futures are pushing 0.10% higher, and Europe is broadly lower. Asia looks a bit steadier. Hang Seng is up 0.23%, and China A50 is up 0.17%, but Nikkei futures are in the red again as the yen stays volatile.
The Japanese bond market and the yen have the potential to develop into the major story for 2025, so keep it on your radar.
The Play Today: How to Trade the ASX Open
So, where does this leave us for today? Gold and energy names probably open weaker. The Aussie tech cohort needs to show some life if we’re going to follow Nasdaq’s lead. Exporters may get a bid thanks to the weaker AUD, but it’s not enough on its own to carry the index. It feels like a classic sell-the-open, buy-the-dip kind of day — especially in copper, lithium, and names tied to the AI trade.
Traders will be watching to see if buyers step in post-open or if weakness in energy and resources drags the index down further. Global tailwinds are there, but the local setup is murky.
Major Themes Driving the Financial Markets:
Inflation in Japan: The return of inflation to Japan has major implications. Japanese Government Bonds are tanking as the market factors in higher rates over time. This has the potential to lead to a highly disruptive unravelling of the Yen Carry Trade.
Trade Tensions and Tariffs: The Trump administration's tariff policies continue to inject volatility into global markets. The potential for higher inflation and slower growth—stagflation—remains a concern. Nasdaq futures are up again overnight. AI, semis, and mega-cap tech are leading the charge globally. Can Aussie tech keep up?
Tech Sector Dynamics: Significant movements in major tech stocks, particularly companies like Tesla and Alphabet, highlight the sector's sensitivity to broader economic indicators and policy decisions. Investors should monitor these developments closely.
Economic Data to Watch this Week:
Economic Data to Watch This Week:
Tuesday: Japanese BOJ Meeting Minutes
Wednesday: Australian CPI, UK CPI, US Core Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: US GDP Final,
Friday: US Core PCE
Reading List
MIQ: The Yen Carry Trade Unwind
TechCrunch: Google AI for Drug Discovery
Global Market Prices
Global Markets(Source: TradingView)
ASX Sector Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples is pumping. Keep an eye on this sector today.
ASX Consumer Staples sector index (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR)
Oil producer Karoon shows strong upward momentum.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
The Daily Brief is prepared in partnership with Vitti Capital.
