ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 17.03.2025 - Futures, Stocks and Key Events.
ASX Stock Market Outlook
As we roll into the start of the trading week on Monday, March 17, 2025, the S&P/ASX 200 futures point to a stronger open, shaking off last week’s volatility. The SPI 200 Index futures for March 2025 are up 85.0 points (1.09%) to 7,867.0. The late-week return of optimism bodes well for equities this week.
Overnight Wrap: Equities, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies
On Wall Street, markets soared to close the week on a high. The Dow Jones jumped 1.58%, S&P 500 futures rallied 2.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 2.41%, marking its strongest single-day performance in months. A resurgence in tech stocks and optimism around a possible resolution to the government shutdown concerns fueled the rally. Investors also shrugged off trade war fears as economic data continued to show resilience in consumer spending and labour markets.
Over in Europe, stocks followed suit. The Euro Stoxx 600 climbed 1.11%, and DAX futures 1.79%, buoyed by strong earnings reports in the financial and industrial sectors.
The commodities market saw notable movements, particularly in the energy sector. Oil prices experienced a modest uptick, with Brent crude futures rising by 1.00% to $70.58 per barrel. The increase was attributed to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions. Gold futures also reached a new high, up 0.33% to $3,001.1/oz, with bears finding no good reasons to stand in the way of the strong momentum.
President Trump’s threat to impose hefty tariffs on EU wine imports has intensified fears of a full-blown trade war, which could have far-reaching implications for global trade dynamics and economic growth. The potential for a US government shutdown lingers, although that’s a minor concern compared to the rest of the circus in town right now.
US bonds fell mildly on very little interest. It was a dull session for US debt traders. If you needed more evidence that recession fears are subsiding, the VIX futures tell the story, with last month’s upward momentum breaking on Friday, falling 8.63% to close at 20.68.
The Trading Plan
With the week fixing for a strong start, traders will be looking to capitalise on oversold stocks offering attractive value. No one wants to miss getting in at the lows, but stay cautious. Keep a close eye on momentum and sentiment, as another fall from here could get vicious. We expect traders to quickly cut and run on any sign of another leg down.
Major Themes Driving the Financial Markets:
Tariffs and trade war: Markets are taking this very seriously, with a recession or hot war becoming a more serious prospect. There’s also a real risk that tariffs lead to higher inflation and lower GDP (stagflation).
The Ukraine war: The resolution to the conflict in Ukraine is important for global confidence in Trump’s leadership. If a resolution doesn’t occur quickly, the chances of the conflict getting bigger and Russia and China getting bolder increase.
Tech Sector Volatility: Significant sell-offs in major tech stocks, particularly Tesla, indicate that the market is taking risk off the table. This is supporting gold and keeping the USD strong.
Economic Data to Watch this Week:
Monday 17th:
Chinese industrial production
Chinese retail sales
US retail sales
Tuesday 18th:
Australia’s Sarah Hunter of the RBA to speak at the Australian Financial Review Banking Summit
Canadian CPI
US import prices
Wednesday 19th:
Japanese BOJ interest rate decision and press conference
Thursday 20th:
US FOMC interest rate decision and press conference
Australian unemployment rate
UK interest rate decision
Friday 21st:
Japanese CPI
Reading List
MIQ: Guide to Navigating the Sell-off
Ray Dalio: How Countries Go Broke
Global Market Prices
Global Markets(Source: TradingView)
ASX Utilities Stay Strong
Utilities are proving resilient.
ASX Utilities sector index (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Droneshielc (ASX:DRO)
Dronshield is gaining strong momentum.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: APA Group (ASX:APA)
APA is at a decision point. Will it break the previous swing high? If so, $8 could come quickly.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
The Daily Brief is prepared in partnership with Vitti Capital.
