ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 18.03.2025 - Futures, Stocks and Key Events
ASX Stock Market Outlook
It’s looking like a green open for the ASX today, with futures up 0.67% (53 points), tracking a solid session on Wall Street. After weeks of chop, traders are sniffing out bargains, with tech stocks rebounding, gold pushing new highs, and the Fed gearing up for its next big move.
Bargain hunting is driving the way in beaten-down tech and rising commodity prices. That’s a recipe for another push higher in Aussie mining stocks and growth names today. But don’t get too comfy—the macro risks haven’t disappeared. The Fed’s big policy meeting looms, oil is climbing on Middle East tensions, and Trump-Putin talks could rattle markets in either direction.
Overnight Wrap: Equities, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies
Wall Street shook off recent jitters overnight, with major indices charging higher for the second straight session. The S&P 500 future climbed 0.7%, led by a rebound in tech and industrials. The Nasdaq 100 added 0.6%, with Intel jumping 6.8% following the announcement of new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, but Tesla slipped 4.8% as investors soured on Musk’s latest antics. The Dow Jones surged 0.88%, marking a strong move for blue chips as traders rotated into safer bets.
Over in Europe, Germany’s DAX and the Euro Stoxx 600 both climbed in hopes of easing economic stimulus and energy costs. There is also fresh optimism that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could be on the table, with Trump set to meet Putin for negotiations.
Gold is flirting with $3,000 per ounce as safe-haven demand remains strong, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over stubborn inflation. Crude oil prices are rising on fresh airstrikes targeting Yemen’s Houthi movement, with Brent crude up 1%. The bond market is showing signs of caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, with the 10-year Treasury yield dipping to 4.3%. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened, with the dollar index falling 0.33% and the euro rebounding to $1.092.
The big picture story right now revolves around geopolitics and central banks. Trump is set to meet Putin to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. If negotiations signal an end to the war, expect a relief rally in European markets and a potential drop in oil prices. If talks break down, it could mean heightened uncertainty and more market volatility. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meets this week, with markets widely expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell’s press conference will be key—any hawkish surprise could slam equities and push yields higher.
The VIX future, Wall Street’s fear gauge, declined to 19.915, its lowest level in weeks. This suggests that market anxiety is cooling off, but given the big geopolitical and macro events on the horizon, traders should stay alert. This could just be a bear market bounce before another leg lower.
The Play Today: How to Trade the ASX Open
ASX miners should be strong today, with gold near record highs and oil prices climbing. Watch for movement in stocks like Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN), and Northern Star (ASX:NST), but smaller value names like Black Cat Syndicate (ASX:BC8) and Antipa Minerals (ASX:AZY) could also get some interest. Energy stocks could also benefit from the latest crude oil spike. The tech sector may catch a bid with stocks like Xero (ASX:XRO) and WiseTech (ASX:WTC).
The market has momentum today, but keep an eye on Trump-Putin headlines and Fed chatter—one wrong move could flip sentiment fast. The bulls are back for now, but global risks are still lurking. Play the bounce, but don’t overstay your welcome.
Major Themes Driving the Financial Markets:
Tariffs and trade war: Markets are taking this very seriously, with a recession or hot war becoming a more serious prospect. There’s also a real risk that tariffs lead to higher inflation and lower GDP (stagflation).
The Ukraine war: The resolution to the conflict in Ukraine is important for global confidence in Trump’s leadership. If a resolution doesn’t occur quickly, the chances of the conflict getting bigger and Russia and China getting bolder increase.
Tech Sector Volatility: Significant sell-offs in major tech stocks, particularly Tesla, indicate that the market is taking risk off the table. This is supporting gold and keeping the USD strong.
Economic Data to Watch this Week:
Monday 17th:
Chinese industrial production 5.9% vs 5.3% expected
Chinese retail sales 4.0% vs 3.8% expected
US retail sales 0.2% vs 0.6% expected
Tuesday 18th:
Australia’s Sarah Hunter of the RBA to speak at the Australian Financial Review Banking Summit
Canadian CPI
US import prices
Wednesday 19th:
Japanese BOJ interest rate decision and press conference
Thursday 20th:
US FOMC interest rate decision and press conference
Australian unemployment rate
UK interest rate decision
Friday 21st:
Japanese CPI
Reading List
MIQ: Guide to Navigating the Sell-off
Ray Dalio: How Countries Go Broke
Global Market Prices
Global Markets(Source: TradingView)
ASX Materials Lead the Way
The materials sector lead the charge on Monday. The strong Chinese industrial production and retail sales will bolster optimism for renewed commodity strength.
ASX Materials sector index (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Droneshielc (ASX:DRO)
Dronshield rejected new highs on Monday, but the upward momentum remains strong.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: APA Group (ASX:APA)
APA made its decision and broke through the previous highs. $8 looms as the next test point, with $8.60 the potential full extension of this move before traders need to re-evalutate.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
The Daily Brief is prepared in partnership with Vitti Capital.
