ASX Pre-Open Brief 14.03.2025
ASX Outlook
The ASX 200 is looking at a flat to slightly lower open, with futures down 0.15% after Wall Street got hammered overnight. Traders are skittish as Trump cranks up the tariff threats and global growth worries pile up. Dip buyers are circling, but sentiment is shot after the past week’s carnage, and any bounce is on shaky ground.
Overnight Wrap
Another ugly session in the US. The S&P 500 dropped 1.38%, locking in its first official correction of 2025, down over 10% from February’s highs and now $5 trillion lighter. The Nasdaq 100 sank 1.88%, taking megacap tech stocks with it, while the Magnificent 7 Index slid 2.4% as the AI-fueled rally kept bleeding out. Speculative names got crushed, if it doesn’t make money, it’s getting sold.
Bond markets aren’t buying the “soft landing” talk anymore. The 10-year US Treasury yield tumbled to 4.27% as investors scrambled for safety. Even junk bonds cracked, with an $8 billion ETF tracking high-yield debt posting one of its worst losses of the year. That’s a serious red flag. When credit markets start cracking, things can get nasty.
The US dollar flexed higher, gaining 0.1% as risk-sensitive currencies took a hit. The Australian dollar slid 0.5% to $0.6287, and the euro dropped 0.3% to $1.0851. The Japanese yen found some safe-haven demand.
Commodities reflected the risk-off shift. Gold jumped 1.7% to $2,983.35/oz, with traders loading up on safety plays. WTI crude fell 1.6% to $66.57, weighed down by global growth concerns. Iron ore edged up 1.5% to $102.20/t, with supply constraints holding up prices, but China’s property mess is still a major overhang.
The Play Today
It’s all about safe-haven flows. Gold’s running, bonds are rallying, and high-yield credit is flashing warning signs. Tech stocks are a mess, but that means there’s potential for an oversold bounce if sentiment shifts. The US dollar’s strength is another wildcard—if it keeps grinding higher, it could add pressure to risk assets. Traders need to stay sharp and use an abundance of caution. This market isn’t for the faint of heart.
Major Themes to Watch:
Tariffs and trade war: Markets are taking this very seriously, with a recession or hot war becoming a more serious prospect.
The Ukraine war: The resolution to the conflict in Ukraine is of concern as it appears now just as likely to escalate into a broader conflict, leading to risk-off flows.
Tech Sector Volatility: Significant sell-offs in major tech stocks, particularly Tesla, indicate that the market is taking risk off the table.
Data to Watch this Week:
Friday 14th:
US Prelim UOM Sentiment
Global Markets
Global Equity Futures (Source: TradingView)
ASX Consumer Staples is Dumping
The Consumer Staples sector is threatening to punch through the November lows.
ASX Utilities sector index (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Droneshielc (ASX:DRO)
Dronshield is showing all the signs of a change in trend with higher highs and lows fromt he February bottom. Volatility could expand on the way up if the move continues.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: APA Group (ASX:APA)
APA continues its upward ascent. Another green bar could see the $8 handle arrive quickly.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Aurelia Metals (ASX:AMI)
AMI stalled on its run-up yesterday, but the momentum remains strong. This is one to watch for breakout potential.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
