Will Syria Boom or Bust? All Eyes on al-Jolani
The Syrian Government’s collapse is a geopolitical earthquake. Years of civil war, sanctions, and isolation have shattered the old regime, leaving a power vacuum—and one burning question:
What (and who) will rise from the ashes?
Stuck in the Middle with Syria
Syria’s new government is a wildcard.
Will it be inclusive and stable, or will it lean hard into sectarianism, risking further fragmentation?
A moderate coalition could unlock international investment, reviving the economy and easing Syria’s humanitarian nightmare. But if extremists take the reins, it’s a recipe for chaos—fueling tensions with Israel, empowering Iran, and sparking yet another U.S.-Russia proxy war.
Each outcome carries ripples for the region, from Lebanon’s fragile peace to Israel’s security concerns and Iran’s strategic positioning.
For investors, the type of government matters. Stability opens doors for reconstruction, agriculture, and infrastructure opportunities. Chaos slams them shut.
Syria’s collapse doesn’t just change Syria—it could shift the entire balance of the Middle East.
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - the rebel group that toppled the regime. He has a past steeped in extreme Islamist views. But is that still his stance?
The world is watching to see if he forms a moderate government, steps aside for a coalition, or pursues power with a heavy ideological hand.
His goals—and how they align with major players like Iran, Israel, the USA, and Russia—will define Syria’s future. Old alliances and rivalries are being reshuffled in real time.
Lebanon, finally under a fragile ceasefire, is nervously eyeing its neighbor’s at transformation.
One of the most dominant themes to consider is the Iran vs Israel dynamic. It’s an ongoing stoush that drives a lot of the behaviours and outcomes in the region.
On it’s side, Iran has proxies throughout the region, including the Houthi’s in Yemen, Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Syria. It also supported the ousted al-Assad dictatorship in Syria.
Iran’s leadership is deeply committed to the extinction of the Jewish race and to the state of Israel. All of it’s alliances are centred on fighting Israel and the US.
Everyone needs a hobby, right?
Israel has the US on it’s side, but the most it can hope for from most of its neighbours is apathy.
The Man of the Hour
While Abu Mohammed al-Jolani and the HTS might seem like a good ideological fit with Iran, it might not be that simple.
Iran backed the murderous dictator al-Assad. A man who tortured and massacred his own people to stay in power. He blew them up, he gassed them, executed them and locked them up for life. For 50 years the country has been under a brutal dictatorship, and Iran facilitated it.
So the big question that everyone is asking now is, what actually drives this al-Jolani guy? Is he really going to align himself with the co-captors of his people?
So, is al-Jolani still an extremist, or has he traded ideology for patriotism?
He’s seemingly walked back those views over time. He’s talked about not wanting to fight with the US and about creating a state run by institutions and a council chosen by the people.
He’s sounding almost reasonable—more like a budding statesman than a hardline ideologue.
The heart of the question is this: Is al-Jolani a patriotic Syrian first and foremost, or a zealous murderous Islamist?
He’s certainly doing his best in interviews to paint himself as the former. He wants to be seen as a freedom fighter and a statesman, not an ideological dictator.
There’s one man from US diplomatic history that’s worth taking a lesson from here.
A Lesson From History
It might not be an obvious comparison to most, but the man in question is Ho Chi Minh, who fought to kick the US and France out of Vietnam and unify the country.
The US viewed Ho Chi Minh as a communist aligned to Russia and China, and at best an unreliable actor in the region, but at worst, the third pillar in an axis of evil.
But did they get that call wrong?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and as we know, the victor writes the history books.
To many in Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh was a freedom fighter—a patriot whose only goal was self-rule for his people. After all, the country had experienced successive slave masters over time, who’s only goal was to plunder and loot the country, most recently France.
The fact that Ho Chi Minh was a communist was a secondary consideration to both Ho Chi Minh and his followers.
The sad fact is that if Ho Chi Minh had not been a communist, then the US would likely not have sent in troops to help defend the south. The conflict would have been over a lot sooner, and with much less death and destruction.
The lesson here is that if al-Jolani is Syrian patriot above all else, then he may be capable of having a good relationship with Israel and the US.
One thing is for sure, the CIA and Mossad will surely have a presence in Syria and be actively capacity building friendly parties to try to sway the direction of the new government to one which is easier and friendlier for them to deal with.
Shifting the Balance of Power
The fall of al-Assad may well just one in a series of events that sees the region shift away from oppressive Islamic dictatorships towards freedom and secularism.
Of course, it’s too early to claim that this is actually playing out. But geopolitical structures are like dominoes. Every move, has a flow on effect.
One government falling could well lead to many others to follow. Or perhaps to at least gradually reform if not fall over all at once.
This could be the moment for Islamic governance to evolve—just as Christianity had to over centuries.
In the past, governments and kings conquered, murdered and enslaved in the name of Christianity. The crusades were thinly veiled looting sprees of the Arab world carried out in the name of Jesus or the Pope or whoever you want to blame.
But over time, we’ve see Christianity mature. It’s come to understand that society functions better when it accepts and tolerates the ‘other’ and stays out of politics.
This is how we get the best outcomes of happiness and prosperity for all.
Islam will one day come to this same realisation. That it serves itself in allowing others to be as they will be. To remove itself from governance and law, where it can only make things worse.
This is a simplistic explanation of course. But the evolution has to happen. There will never be just one religion in the world. We will always have many.
So, it stands to reason, that any religion that wants to exist in the long-term cannot maintain a policy of killing everyone who doesn’t agree with it. Because the only logical conclusion can be the extermination of that religion.
Rebuilding
Years of war gutted Syria’s infrastructure. Roads, schools, hospitals—entire cities need rebuilding.
Reconstruction is the obvious play. Roads, schools, oil pipelines—everything needs rebuilding. For construction firms, logistics operators, and tech providers, this is a potential goldmine.
The reconstruction phase will be a race to establish systems, and whoever gets there first could dominate the market for years.
The companies andReconstruction is the obvious play. Roads, schools, oil pipelines—everything needs rebuilding. For construction firms, logistics operators, and tech providers, this is a potential goldmine. countries that are invited to help rebuild will depend largely on which way the new government shapes up.
The situation is still fluid for investors and geopolitical players alike. Certainly, the rebuilding phase is key in external players exerting ongoing influence, but also for big international conglomerates to secure long-term contracts.
Geography Significance
Syria’s location is a double-edged sword. Sitting at the crossroads of trade routes and energy corridors, it’s a strategic prize—and a geopolitical battleground.
It’s both a blessing and a curse.
If the new government stabilizes, it could reopen trade and transit routes long abandoned.
Warehousing, logistics, and energy infrastructure could become lucrative sectors. International players—especially those in the Gulf and Europe—will be eyeing Syria for its potential as a regional hub.
This is obviously a long-term potential play.
Agriculture: Reviving the Fertile Crescent
Syria’s fertile crescent has been a breadbasket for millennia. The land is fertile, and with proper investment in irrigation and modern farming techniques, it could rise again as a hub for regional food production.
The expertise and technology of more advanced economies/countries could find a willing home in the agriculture sector there. If trade with the US opens up, think of companies like Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) and Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) who make excavators, tractors and other farming, mining and construction machinery.
Investment in irrigation and sustainable water management technologies would also be critical in turning Syria back into a breadbasket for the region.
Dupont (NYSE:DD) is a leader in water related technologies, but also in many other areas of construction, building, energy, healthcare and manufacturing, making it a standout in terms of practical skills and products for rebuilding.
This kind of ground-up rebuilding is a cornerstone of long-term stability and strategic ties.
The Investor’s Lens: A Time for Strategic Patience
Opportunities in Syria are emerging—but they demand sharp focus and patience. This isn’t the place for snap decisions. Now, it’s all about watching Syria closely—tracking who takes power and what alliances form. From there, investors can map out the scenarios and start strategizing for opportunities in the region.Understanding the new government, its alliances, and the broader regional impact is key. For those willing to take calculated risks, the payoff could be significant.
Overall, the biggest opportunity from the fall of the al-Assad regime is a secular, prosperous government with the wellbeing of the people in mind.
The biggest benefits would be two-fold:
1.The peace and prosperity of the Syrian people, who have endured far to much attrocity for too long, and;
2.The potential start of a shift in the balance of power in the Arab world, away from the oppressive and genocidal rule of Islamic extremists towards moderate and reasonable actors who can deal in good faith and respect the rights of other countries and peoples to exist.
Whether or not this comes to pass, we’ll have to wait and see.
Now, it’s all about watching Syria closely—tracking who takes power and what alliances form. From there, investors can map out the scenarios and start strategizing for opportunities in the region.