The NDIS is the Ticking Economic Timebomb we Should be Discussing

Australia is barreling towards the 2025 federal election, and the big-ticket topics are sucking up all the oxygen in the conversation. Medicare, cost of living, national security and a housing shortage. But there's an economic elephant in the room that no one in Canberra wants to name for fear of uttering a four-letter word.

NDIS.

It's ballooning into one of the biggest threats to Australia's economic stability. If we don't tackle it head-on, we risk a major productivity crisis and a potentially nasty recession.

The NDIS is on track to cost $125 billion annually within a decade, and the growth is outpacing just about every other major government expense. It accounts for 30% of all new job growth in Australia. 

The care sector, which includes disability services, aged care, childcare, health, and medical services, has doubled in size in under a decade. It now makes up 15% of the entire workforce and is the main engine of government job growth, accounting for 9 out of 10 new jobs in Australia in late 2024.

All this private sector job growth is causing an optics problem. It makes the economy look strong, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.